State Sen. Rachel Ventura (IL-43)

The Challenge

Ventura ran against an appointed incumbent who outroaised her 65-to-1 and had the backing of the state party, labor unions, both U.S. Senators and the governor. Our data-first approach helped her overcome the institutional disadvantage to win a 15-point victory.

The Strategy

As a county supervisor, Ventura had some residual name recognition. Rather than go negative, we chose to attack the corruption of the Democratic machine and portray her as an independent leader.
  • Independent Branding: We designed mailers focusing on her support from pro-choice groups like Planned Parenthood, highlighting that she had no strings attached to the corruption of the machine.
  • Mailer Program: We cleverly deflated negative attacks by making fun of the opponent's "junk mail" in a final mailer that corrected their inaccuracies.
  • Massive Outreach: Our field program out-contacted Mattson 15-to-1, powered by the NWF fellowship program's massive calling and texting infrastructure.

Software & Data

NWF leveraged an in-house data scraper to automate weekly reports based on social media performance, optimizing models developed for previous campaigns.
  • By leveraging multivariate regression on features such as election history and sentiment analysis, NWF generated curated messaging and optimal communication modes.
  • Despite being outroaised 18-to-1, NWF’s software facilitated a voter outreach operation outperforming Mattson 15-to-1.

Outcome

Through these efforts, Ventura defeated Mattson in the Democratic primary, 57.4% to 42.5%, and her margin of victory in the general election was nearly identical to that of the governor’s race in the district.
Ventura Graph

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